Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
